Indonesia Market Outlook Indonesia: A place to hide? (update3) - BNP Paribas

How to position in Indonesia?
The recent correction has resulted in valuations retreating to more reasonable levels. The Indonesian market is trading at 13.5x our 2012 earnings estimates, around 1 standard deviation from the mean. We believe this is justified to reflect the tremendous progress that Indonesia has made.

As we are likely to enter into turbulent times when external factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market, we maintain our stance since the beginning of the year that it is better to focus investments on the domestic sectors such as banks, consumers and cement and to stay away from the commodity sector as it is facing uncertain demand outlook as the large global economies are struggling. So far this year, this has proved to be the right call.

Our top picks are as follows:
Astra International – We believe Astra is the best proxy to play the structural trend where the fast-growing middle class is now able to buy large-ticket discretionary items such as cars as GDP per capita is now already at USD3,000. We expect this trend to accelerate when GDP per capita reaches the threshold level of USD3,700. In the meantime, continued ample liquidity should make financing widely available and interest rate low. Trading at 13.8x 2012E earnings, we find valuations still reasonable. We have a TP of IDR80,000.

ICBP – The company is the largest instant noodle producer, benefiting from potentially lower soft commodities prices and strong currency. Trading at 17.3x 2012E P/E does not look stretched compared to regional peers. Our TP is IDR6,600. MAPI – with 90+ world-class brands which include the likes of Zara, M&S, Starbucks, and Reebok targeted at the middle class, the company has a first-mover advantage in reaping the benefits of its investments. A very strong bargaining power with malls given its brands is another advantage. The 1H results prove that the company is delivering on earnings through operating leverage. Our TP is IDR4,800.

BBRI and Mandiri – we believe the banking sector’s strong growth is not at threat as liquidity remains plenty while NPL is still very much under control. The potential regulation that could limit ownership of one controlling party is not applicable to the state-owned banks, hence we believe the likes of Mandiri and BRI should do well.

Indocement – Despite posting lower-than-expected earnings in 1H11, we believe 2H11 will be better as the company looks ready to increase prices due to cost pressures. Given the current environment, we expect energy prices to decline, easing pressure on costs. We find the stock attractive at 11.1x 2012E P/E. Our TP is IDR 21,500