Astra International (ASII IJ), The Road to US$50bn - CLSA

Sarina has just written a big report on Astra International (ASII IJ). The stock has been more than 60 baggers since 2001, massive value creator. Strong management and CG practice. Current market cap is US$31bn and Sarina is looking at US$50bn market cap by 2015 (although she downgrades ST recommendation to OPF due to recent stock outperformance). CIO report is attached, please let me know if you need the full report.

One of the biggest stories in Indonesia is the strong emergence of middle class. Indonesia is largely a domestic economy with 2/3 of GDP from private consumption. Per capita income is reaching a critical threshold of US$3,000, which is the threshold for J-curve hockey stick growth. And companies servicing middle class will reap the rewards in the next few years. And Astra is one of our top picks in this theme.

Astra is still an auto company, deriving 60% of its earnings from auto-related business (including auto financing). Astra’s service standard in the auto industry is still the benchmark. The company commands very respectable market shares in car and motorcycle business, 55% and 52% market shares respectively. Sarina report also discusses the turnaround in Astra Honda motorcycle business. In 5M11, market share of Honda is 9.8% ahead of Yamaha. Both shared 45-46% market share last year.

Car is one of the aspiration items for many Indonesians. Indo’s car penetration of 4% is one of the lowest in the region. Coupled with high GDP per capita growth, Indonesia offers plenty of upside.